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再見牛市的曙光?

隨著歐債危機持續的進步和美國國內生產復甦,股市開始恢復了生氣。美國道瓊(DJIA)在近兩週共漲了4.9%來到11644,為八月股市衰退以來最高點。





再來,追蹤一下近一星期華爾街日報(Wall Street Journal;WSJ)關於歐元區和美國新聞:

Germany, France Make Progress on Debt Plan (10/15)
G-20 Welcomes Progess on EU Debt Plan (10/15)
Retail Sales Rise, but Consumers Still Worried (10/16)
Obama to Step Up Pressure on Jobs Plan (10/15)
Stocks Fend Off Bear, Up for the Year (10/15)
German Bankers Raise Alarm at EU Proposals (10/14)
Euro Zone Moves One Step Forward, Two Steps Back (10/14)
German Institutes Call for State-Default Mechanism (10/13)
OECD: Tests Needed on Sovereign Exposure (10/12)
Merkel, Sarkozy Say Deal is Near to Stabilize Euro Zone (10/10)

我們可以輕易看見即便有憂慮,大體上還是充滿了信心和希望;然而,在一遍叫好聲中,有篇文章便顯得突兀,尤其更刊在華爾街日報頭版,標題是「Volatile Market Sends a Warning」,提醒投資人在此市場震盪時期,仍須謹慎小心。本週我們就來聽聽這不一樣的觀點:

在上周短暫的股市反彈後,許多投資人抱著希望本週陸續回流;但,紐約大學史坦商學院(Stern School of Business, New York University) Richard Sylla教授指出,儘管上週有過反彈,市場基本面依舊不健康。回顧歷史,市場騷動混亂時期,每每在下一波暴風雨前,總會出現類似上週短暫獲利的喘息機會。

根據統計資料,在歐債風暴爆發期間,從9月21日起,道瓊產業指數在13個交易日內有11天波動超過1%,其中更有5個交易日超過2%。這樣的波動並不尋常,自從2000年後,道瓊一天漲跌幅波動平均0.87%。然而,今年八月以來,平均波動高達1.69%,過去十年兩倍之高。他指出,在八月底到10月3日這段跌幅高達17%之後,道瓊在接下來9個交易日漲跌幅波動超過1%。

過去從1929年經濟大蕭條時期開始,共有20個單日跌幅超過4%,其中有9個在2000年之後,2008年發生了4個。在20個單日漲幅超過4%,其中有16個在2000年之後,2008年發生了2個。

在這段巨幅波動期間,長線操作者承受龐大壓力與損失而撤離市場,僅剩下短線買家和避險基金在市場奮鬥,而這一波波撤退導致市場的不穩定性。他指出短線操作者利用融資增加「一次性賭注籌碼」快進快出,使得市場劇烈漲跌,而此投機心理在今年歐債風暴後的協商期間更為明顯。從今年八月初開始,道瓊在56個交易日內有35個漲跌幅超過1%,其中包含18個漲和17個跌。這35天裡面有18天變動幅度超過2%,7天超過3%,值得注意的是波幅超過2%的大部分都是下跌的。(總體而言,道瓊從今年四月波峰迄今已經跌掉了13%)。

從過去數據看來,由於劇烈震盪不一定表示市場下跌,相信有些投資人認為股市已經觸底,開始反彈了。但現在市場投機心理過於濃厚,無法真實反映經濟數據,所以股市投資仍是存在相當大的風險,特別是對於長線投資人而言。

筆者不是保守主義或是悲觀主義的代表,根據幾項經濟指標包含CPI、PPI等,我仍看好這波經濟反彈力道。誠如上週強調,熊(牛)市並不是總體經濟的體檢單,就算經濟現況看好,股市操作還需步步為營。

玩轉一分鐘

問: 美國國會通過法案期望迫使人民幣升值,想當然爾,中國肯定不買單,對美中總體貿易會有什麼影響?

答: 一般在分析匯率波動對進出口影響時,多利用匯率對經常帳影響。經常帳和國際經濟發展國民所得及匯率變動有密切關係,如果其餘額是正數,表示本國的淨國外財富或淨國外投資增加;如果是負數,表示本國的淨國外財富或投資減少。經常帳內容涵蓋五大項:商品交易,非貨幣性黃金交易,保險、運費,投資收益,移轉收支。在國際收支中,經常帳上的交易總額占最大的比例。簡單的說,經常帳就是出口收益減去進口支出,當本國貨幣對美元貶值(即匯率上升,美元變貴),則有利於出口賺取美元而無利於進口。所以,一般報導會說,美國欲逼使人民幣升值使其貿易逆差(進口支出大於出口收益)減小;中國政府不從,美國人氣得跳腳。其實中國不買帳,美國也無需太過氣憤;這裡我簡單介紹 Haberler貿易理論來解釋這一點。

Haberler將所有貿易商品利用兩國要素生產力(例:生產一單位商品需多少勞動人口)差異排序:,此中,A代表美國要素生產力,而A*代表中國要素生產力;接著考慮兩國相對工資,此中,e代表兩國匯率,而w和w*分別代表美國和中國薪資。將兩國相對薪資放入要素生產力排序中,如表示美國出口i種商品而中國出口n-(i+1)種商品。當今情況是人民幣低估,所以可以假設排序為,亦即美國只出口兩種商品,而中國出口剩下所有商品。當中國不買單調整對美元匯率時,e固定不動。但相對薪資依然會影響兩國貿易情況,就大家所知,中國勞動力薪資調整速度相對於美國在近幾年高速成長,當隨著中國漲薪而變大時就會向右移動,美國出口商品便會增加,進而改善貿易經常帳。直覺來說,當中國勞動薪資調漲,不論是興建投資還是外包投資成本都會增加促使廠商移轉至較低薪資且生產力相當的國家去。當然還有其他更複雜模型說明,但介紹此簡單模型概念開拓大家思考貿易互動的想法。


玩轉赫卜曼
美國紐約經濟博士生,美國知名經濟學會會員;研究領域: 國際經濟、產業經濟、區域發展,已發表多篇SSCI等級期刊論文。

「經視也」意在開拓大家的視野,藉由簡短論述引領大家看懂經濟,預見趨勢,得以作出屬於個人的適當理財決策。

本欄論述僅供參考,請投資人自行斟酌投資選擇

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