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全球導航 2013-4-23 全球金融市場多空並存,到底資金流向何處?



雖然新興市場貨幣受到熱錢炒作,但大概不會有很多人把大筆資金投向你聽都沒聽過的國家, 日圓和英鎊等則更別提了,甚至連央行都想要拋售。
結果是什麼呢?美元現在重登王者寶座,至少暫時是如此。不只是外匯市場,在亞洲股市都呈現弱勢拉回的此刻(當然日本除外),美國股市仍然處於高檔震盪的格局,至少暫時連個頭都沒做出來,因此在國際熱錢的眼中,美元資產仍然是最佳的選擇,上周公布的經濟數字也只有房產項目表現較為亮眼,這當然也是熱淺造成的現象之一。 
幾周前已經分析過美元指數震盪區間造成的原因,當然在大環境沒有改變的前提下,美元指數邏輯上來推斷不應當突破區間,目前呈現的狀況也是如此。

美元指數

美國的經濟基本面與美元的地位已經不那麼匹配了。雖然美國的公共財政狀況比除英國以外的絕大多數主要經濟體都要糟。雖然美國已不像60年前那樣在世界貿易領域佔據支配地位,但是在沒有任何更好的選擇之下,投資人還能做些甚麼?

(編按: 今天中國PMI數字公布不如預期,股市大跌2.57%,中國經濟趨緩對美股可能不是太好的消息)

美元/日圓

美元兌日圓已經數次挑戰100元大關,雖然仍難越雷池一步,但這和黃金一樣, 突破一百元看來已經是早晚的問題,如果貶值的趨勢持續,我們更希望看到的的是日本的經濟數據持續疲弱不振,喔yes~~我們又不是日本人,我們只希望看到更瘋狂的日幣寬鬆措施,而對於安倍來說的好消息可能是投機家的壞消息。
英鎊/美元

上上周答案揭曉,1.53很可能是壓力,這也是短線弱勢整理的區域所在。
黃金

黃金短線崩跌,短短幾天最多跌掉將近200元,最新價格反彈到1425元,但長期而言黃金只會緩跌,而對價格而言也是對2010年以來不理性預期的價格修正。但2010年黃金價格大概在1000塊左右,如果完全修正回原點,電視上那些看跌搶買黃金的散戶們可要吃足苦頭了。
石油(周線)

石油也是破線格局,也有機會來到80元的震盪區間的底部支撐區,然而黃金石油的同步下挫意味著炒作資金的退出。是否是全面撤出?目前是沒有發生。
美十年債

但看到美十年債利率短線的走軟(價格上揚),顯示還是有不少投資者作比較保守的操作。美國經濟成長率已經遠遠低於近期歷史3.4%的長期平均水準好幾年了, 接下來一代人經濟增長率非常有可能降至近零的水準。

其實說真格的,這不過是一個新的時代產生隨之而來的必然產物,因為2008年那一場金融海嘯實在影響太為深遠。我們先提幾個過去從來未曾發生的巨變:美國消費者25年來大肆借錢消費,現在變成大舉存錢,成為一個新的儲蓄時代。

這種轉變在向海外蔓延,因為美國消費者在減少商品和服務的進口,而其他很多國家的經濟增長又依靠這些商品和服務的出口。過去10年美國的儲蓄率降為1%,成為不折不扣的消費大國,然而新的消費大國在哪產生?我想不言而喻。 美國的金融槓桿化浪潮在70年代開始加速,貝爾斯登和雷曼兄弟破產之前,華爾街公司的債務股權比率已經猛增至20倍、30倍甚至更高。

這個對近幾年全球經濟增長起到很大支持作用的趨勢,正在被今天的金融去槓桿化扭轉,而哪個國家曾是世界工廠,卻可能開始轉型成為消費大國,擁有經濟實力,卻從未有太多的金融商品?新的美國夢可能在一個地方崛起。


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