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美股最強造市商騎士資本KCG的殞落~美股市場量能分佈解析


還記得之前的8/1美股重大事件嗎
大約兩週前電子交易公司Getco Holding提出價值14億美元的現金,
外加股票交易方案與騎士資本(KCG)進行合併,
如此一來將形成全美國最大的股票及期權造市商之一

位於芝加哥的Getco是NYSE交易所排名第二的指定造市商。
而KCG則用電腦模型來分配股票和期權的買賣單,
它所執行的股票交易量大約美國股票交易總量的10%。

而Getco的競爭對手Virtu則提出了至少11億美元的現金收購報價,
KCG八月份由於技術故障向NYSE發出了大量錯誤指令,
因此損失了4.4億美元
而KCG面臨現金短缺破產的危機,被迫引進新的投資資金。
以Jefferies Group為首的公司當時向KCG提供4億美元的援助,
Getco也是其中之一。

其他公司還包括Blackstone(黑石,台灣投資人應該聽過),
TD Ameritrade Holding Corp(這家是有中文服務的美股券商)
和Stifel Financial。

根據SEC記錄,此次的金援讓Getco持有了KCG達23.8%的股份...

若兩家公司合併,新的公司將承擔龐大的造市短沖交易業務。
作為美國一流的造市商,KCG還在美國第四大現貨證券交易所Direct Edge擁有20%的股份。
而Edge也就是有EDGA、EDGX這兩個通道的通道系統商。

而該筆交易將會給新公司帶來更多的債務。
Getco表示有來自一個「大咖法人」9.5億美元的全額貸款支持。
所以對於這筆交易非常有信心完成。

Getco提出了兩個步驟。
第一、KCG買下Getco的2.42億新發行股票,以及可以額外購買6900萬股的權證。

第二、合併後的公司將發布要約收購,
以每股3.5美元現金的價格購買最多1.54億股票。

8/1當天美國股市的量也因為KCG的程式秀逗,所以爆出了10億股的巨量,
美國股市的量能通常都是以「股」去討論,
與台股的成交值不一樣。

例如:
美國昨天的量有增加,會不會量增價漲呢?
昨天成交了50億股,而過去一週均量才36億股...
看來一定是有什麼事情要發生了...

換成台股的話,
就是討論說今天成交量有沒有800億啊!
因為這幾天行情比較熱絡喔!
是不是有什麼國安基金進場啊?
希望未來可以有1000億的量,營業員朋友也比較好過日子。

以上的對話大概就是美股與台股量能討論的差異。

如果對於量的大小沒概念的話,畢德歐夫再提以下幾點給大家,
台股過去曾經出現3000億的大量,
不過最近一兩年來量能大約維持在800億上下,
而前陣子甚至出現500億以下的低量,
讓大家唉唉叫....

而美股呢?美股現在光NYSE交易所一天的量約6億多股,
如果加上其他通道商的成交貢獻,
美國一天的股數約60億股...請點下圖
如果台灣的讀者硬要換算「成交值」的話,
那大概是一天2兆1千億新台幣左右...
什麼?兆...是的,你沒看錯,美股市場大概這麼大。
不過現在已經算冷清了,之前08年的時候,
每天都是更大的量在成交。

上面的圖,是代表每個通道商(交易所)的量能成交分佈圖
可以看到
紅色框框就是代表NYSE「交易所」在NYSE「市場」的成交量,
而深綠色框框代表就是NASDAQ「交易所」在NASDAQ「市場」的成交量,
藍色框框就是占市場的百分比。

最下方的NASDAQ(DQ)就是交易員又愛又恨的「D通道」,
愛的原因是,這類黑池交易,一旦抓到就是飽賺一票,
恨的原因是,林北總是抓不到,XXOO...
而且D通道的手續費往往會稍稍貴一些...
沒有掛單退佣可以賺。
不像ARCA、BATS、EDGX都有不錯的退傭可以賺...

耶誕連假快要到了,
美國股市的量能也準備往下down,
這段時間的交易股數不容易放大,
而且拿到也不容易出的掉,
畢德歐夫也是犯下了這個毛病,
特地提出來跟各位交易員分享,
當我交易股票的量能達當天的5%的時候,
心裡就感到不安,
尤其是無量的時候,一不小心就作太多了...
量能逼近了9%的時候,
我的拿單就被抓到了,
後來只能忍痛打在很差的位置,
這是最近犯下的錯誤,
分享給大家,在連續假期過程中,
交易員請小心操盤。

最後祝大家交易順利,
2012年已經靠近尾聲,你今年賺錢還虧錢呢?
交易明細單拿出來檢討一下吧!
感謝各位。
喜歡這篇文章,請點讚喔!
有些交易員會在五檔掛單上(Level 2)掛假單,造成散戶的恐慌或是信賴,而刻意的作價有時候會遇到顧莊的大咖反咬一口,我不想拿的單全部成交,這時候的困境與危險也是考驗高階交易員的功夫之一。

或許您對以下文章有興趣
8/1美股重大事件:KCG交易出包~45分鐘4億4千萬美元的代價(下)
當沖輸掉的不是金錢,而是交易信心(複委託費用解析)
亂世之中,股票操作難得的三大經典~公司派是利多與財報的製造者
人性的貪婪在金融市場表露無遺~基金經理人的幻想與哀愁
美股三個月來最大回檔多空研判~低量中的霸主年賺近百億美金的秘密
不公平社會下年輕人的謀生之路

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