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到底是籌碼分析準,還是技術分析強?


在獵人介紹一系列籌碼分析與技術分析的策略後,相信對於大家在建立自己的交易模組應該有一定的幫助。不過在一個月黑風高的夜晚,獵人發現這些策略他們在比較自己今年的績效,誰比較好,誰賺的錢比較多。就讓我們瞧瞧他們到底有多大差異。

到底誰最賺?


在作籌碼策略回測時,因為籌碼資料時間長度不同,
所以不要用總績效的眼光去看待他們,
不過技術指標策略的時間長度是一樣的。
一項被視為提款機的小資一族(融資券策略)嗆聲了,
好你個歪資,今年怎麼這麼低調阿,
歪資躲在一旁畫圈圈說:「因為今年沒賺到錢啊!」
這時候,看到十大惡人(十大特定交易人)躲得更遠了,
因為他們賠得比歪資更多,連臉都不敢露了。
剛好,技術指標們大搖大擺地從外面走進來了,
說道:你們在討論什麼事情啊!
喔!沒啦!我們在比較到底誰賺的錢比較多?小資說道。
這時候,DMI嘴角露出微笑說:「今年賺太多了,
所以剛剛請技術指標們吃了一頓大餐。」
雖然大部分的技術指標策略也都是賺錢的,除了乖離率外。
不過十大惡人不服輸,又跳出來嗆聲說:
路遙知馬力,現在才過完第一季,等過完今年就知道了。
那到底今年每個人的績效到底如何呢?

各策略的績效報表比較


首先我們把所有策略的績效表列出如下:


交易分析表


策略分析表


籌碼分析策略-年損益表


技術分析策略-年損益表


籌碼分析策略-月損益表


技術分析策略-月損益表

綜合以上報表來看,似乎是技術分析策略表現較好,
但是大家不要忘了,籌碼分析策略是用日資料來做回測的,
績效要表現得好是很困難的,因為此種策略可能會慢半拍進場。
所以小資一族真的是蠻厲害的,今年獲利還可以超過5萬元,
而且近年來的獲利還算穩定,看來小蝦米已經變成大鯨魚了!
再來,我們看到技術分析的策略,
基本上,除了乖離率外,所有的技術分析策略都是獲利的,
而這些策略,獵人都是使用很簡單的方式去撰寫出來的,
相信有在FOLLOW獵人文章的人,應該有改寫出更好的程式。
最近的行情對於當沖程式似乎不太友善,
但是相對於波段程式來說,今年獲利都還不錯。
今年期貨選擇權市場有許多變革,除了去年的週選擇權出現後,
4/1又調降了一半的期交稅,以及經手費,
這樣可能會吸引更多人進來期貨市場玩耍。
接著在年中,又會有小台指的週契約出現,
每當市場有些變革,市場的交易模式可能就會出現改變,
是危機,也可能是另一種獲利的契機,就看你如何去應變。
如果您看了上面的報表後,對其中的交易策略有興趣的話,
可以參考下面整理的文章連結,相信您一定可以從中挖到寶的。



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