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台股三國志 【總綱】知敵,知地,知己的投資決策




兩年來,
卡方斯分享了不少的文章,
以期對投資人提供有效的策略
去面對瞬息萬變的市場,
然而投資相關知識略顯繁浩,
有時候即便有心學習,
亦有不知從何下手之憾。

這邊特別將筆者過往文章整裡出一個架構,
藉此幫助讀者有效率的進入台股市場的大門,
進而達到系統化交易的境界。

知敵,知地,知己的投資心法



大致上而言,
要建立一個成功的投資策略,
進而在投資的戰場上稱王稱霸,
取得思想與智慧累積的財富,
其實只要做到"知敵、知地、而後知己",
雖不敢言能夠在市場上百戰百勝成為一代歷史留名之戰將,
但是要達成穩定獲利,實非難事。

所謂的知敵
就是要了解場中參與者的動向,
市場充斥的各方豪強與霸主,
虎視眈眈地關注你手中辛勤的勞務所得,
投身於險惡的波動前,
務必要先觀察這些重要大頭背後的動作與想法,
確保趨勢明顯時站對邊,
多空激戰時能明哲保身吃吃豆腐。

知地則是要先了解投資商品的本質,
對於股票的族群而言,
就熟悉其產業利多結構與上下游與連動關係,
對於選股與取決時機有非常重要的意義。
而以指數操作為主的玩家,
則是了解台指數相應的重要權值趨勢,
配合其輪動變化,更可以深化判別多空的能力。
進而找到許多高勝率的出手時機。

達成知敵、知地後,
最後也最重要的其實是自知
別人用起來好的策略,
自己不一定合腳,
好的策略是建立在完美的執行上的,
了解自己的操作習性,
去制定相應配套的資金權衡與風險配套,
方能於眼見時機時,正確地出手把握。

這邊卡方斯將過往的文章,
歸類成知敵、知地、知己以及曾公開實戰的例子。
分成四大類,以期讀者可以按圖索驥,
增進自身的投資功力。


知敵 - 籌碼分析篇

"知己知彼,百戰不殆;不知彼而知己,一勝一負;不知彼,不知己,每戰必殆。"

知敵觀敵,不觀察手握重兵的市場霸主動向,
貿然投身戰場往往顯得不踏實,
幸而,台股市場上的籌碼資訊算是相當透明,
觀察並不是難事,真正的眉角還是藏在分析之中。
這邊大致上知敵的文章分成兩類,

一類是基本的抓取資料的方法與基礎數據分析概念,
另一類是相應的分析應用,
希望讀者可以從中找出知敵的竅訣。


籌碼分析與應用

台股三國志- (一)法人的概論
台股三國志(二) - 法人關鍵戰場
台股三國志(三) - 競合的真義
台股三國志(四) - 魏國虎豹騎!!
台股三國志(五) - 料敵機先
台股三國志(六) - 外資的期貨籌碼與戰略
台股三國志(七) - 外資的視野
台股三國志(八) - 外資的關鍵大將-摩台指
台股三國志(九) - 自營主力的基本戰略
台股三國志(十) - 外資籌碼實戰解讀!
籌碼三國志(十一) - 一次看懂外資的價差套利手法
台股三國志(十三) - 盤面內容與籌碼的分析要訣
台股三國志(十四) - 宏達電,內線,與籌碼
台股三國志(十五) - 法人爆量的應對實戰(開發金,興富發)
台股三國志(十六) - 誰是影響你持股股價的控盤者?
台股三國志(十七) - 大戶持股重要性比較


知地 - 產業分析篇

"夫地形者,兵之助也。料敵制勝,計險隘遠近,上將之道也。知此而用戰者必勝,不知此而用戰者必敗。"


既然要投資,對於所屬的商品必需要有一定程度的認知,
所謂:「不怕千招會,只怕一招精。」
卡方斯在這個部分較偏重介紹台股的電子股為主
這樣做的好處是,掌握台股最重要的權值產業動向,
往往對於大盤的判讀會有更上一層樓的功力,
有操作相關標的的讀者不妨一看。


多頭總司令~ 半導體漲勢週期套利
台股五窮六絕操作策略剖析
產業多頭循環獲利法則
如何歸納電子業脈絡
品牌價值大解秘:找出下一個宏達電!
竹科的創立始祖~ 晶圓代工業產業(一)
飆股搖籃 - IC設計選股心法入門
IC設計業選股心法(二) – 技術力評估密傳
產業東西軍 : 為什麼宏達電行? 宏碁不行?
產業東西軍 : 為什麼台積電行? 聯電不行?
產業東西軍 - 為什麼三星行? 台積電不行?
為什麼台積電可以,三星不行?
為什麼台積電可以,英特爾不行?
為什麼華固可以,遠雄不能?
鋪天蓋地的產業變革浪潮 - 3DIC的進行式(一)
3D-IC的進行式(二) - 即將變革的相關產業
3D-IC的進行式(三) - IC設計業的生死競逐
力成3D-IC測試廠動工,告訴我們的事情
那些爾必達破產告訴我們的事情

知己 - 心態風險規劃篇

"昔之善戰者,先為不可勝,以待敵之可勝"
"勝兵先勝而後戰,敗兵先戰而後求勝。"

投資其實不是大家想的這麼美好,
坊間充斥著許多似是而非的盲點,
各種的造神傳說,更是讓讀者有不正確的認知。

本篇的重點在於,
建立讀者對於投資正確的描述,
並希望讀者找尋出適合自身的操作模式,
以求克服執行力上的難處,
把握住每一個切合自身風險規劃的時機。
也再將其細分為投資心法,
與合理風險規劃兩大類。

投資心法

定期定額投資的謊言
股神巴菲特的「不合理」賽局投資
金融大鱷索羅斯的「合理」賽局投資
跨入交易者的殿堂(一) - 漫談適合你的交易模式
狼派人生 - 卡方斯所認知的交易本質
投資策略的三個象限 - 頻率,風險與報酬
完美交易決策進行式 - 高頻,高勝率與低風險的實踐道路!
大賺,做的順,更應該戒慎恐懼!! - 交易順景的反思
教育應該不一樣觀後感:交易也應該不一樣!!
初入交易場不可不知 - 紀律下注的基本鍛鍊
不要再當投資跳蚤了!! 熟悉的商品就是好商品!!
交易精進的關鍵 ~ 投資決策檢討SOP!!
避開未知黑天鵝,尋求穩定獲利的方法
買股票究竟是要先選股還是先選市?


資金控管

初入交易場不可不知 - 紀律下注的基本鍛鍊
機會來了,該下多少錢來一搏? - 總資金槓桿控管
別傻了,勝率六成的結論沒甚麼用
贏要衝,輸要縮 - 資金控管的藝術
"以小博大" - 財務槓桿的簡介與迷思
問明牌就是問進場點,然而怎麼進場你想清楚了嗎?
再好的策略,沒有資金控管一樣傾家盪產
為什麼卡方斯不喜歡報明牌? - 簡單的路都是潛藏陷阱的路
初入交易場不可不知 - 紀律下注的基本鍛鍊

過往實戰回顧篇

最後卡方斯紀錄了,
過往從盤面,籌碼,到產業新聞解讀,
各種不同角度切入布局的實戰預測或操作,
裡面隱含了相當多的操作手法與實戰心得,
有興趣的讀者可以在此翻閱。


賈伯斯閃辭? 蘋果供應鏈還值得投資嗎?
類股布局凌亂,正是高點下殺時!!
多頭破壞神,降臨!!
看幣圖誌讓你輕鬆打敗國內基金績效!!
宏達電跳水跌停秀,你空了嗎?
像MIB一般了解宏達電翻空背後黑幕!!!
王雪紅的18億,究竟能否力挽宏達電於既倒?
兵敗如山倒,宏達電的將來何去何從?
籌碼三國志(十二) - 盤整低點實戰預測
台股三國志(十三) - 盤面內容與籌碼的分析要訣
台股三國志(十四) - 宏達電,內線,與籌碼
內線不可怕,可怕的是我們不了解它!! - 籌碼破解內線實戰
聯電庫藏股~真的還假的?! - 籌碼實戰判讀利多祕法
從棒球選球邏輯到股市操作思維 - 台股操作邏輯實戰


最後感謝讀者長期支持,
喜歡的話記得訂閱股市文武韜專欄,
以便掌握卡方斯每周新的文章,

此外本篇文章將會不定期更新,
藉此納入一些新進文章方便讀者整理吸收。
覺得有幫助的話,
也可以小小一下鼓勵卡方斯喔!



           操作順心
                                卡方斯



先分析盤面內容與籌碼,練就知敵知地的能力,而後反求諸己找出執行無礙的交易模式,穩定獲利絕對不是甚麼難事,有心的讀者相信可以在其中找到不少收穫。

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