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別傻了,勝率六成的結論沒甚麼用


最近與讀者討論一些盤面上的問題,
有一件蠻有趣的事就是被問到,

"卡大,你對大陸開兩會後,上漲機率接近60%怎麼看?"

聽到這個議題,筆者只回答了,

"六成勝率的統計不太具備討論價值"

事實上,
研究籌碼或是盤面對於後勢股價關聯性的時候,
也常常會聽到一些相關性不是太強的統計結論。

如果讀者就這樣輕易地去相信這些結論,
往往會未見其利反受其害,
今天我們就來討論一些數據分析上的基本要點。





六成勝率的統計,沒用!


說老實話,
最容易發生所謂的結論模糊不可信的研究,
大概就是投資這個領域了。


而一個六成勝率的結論,
對於投資策略上,幾乎不具備參考價值,
我們比較想看到的是,
大贏或大輸的策略。

舉例而言,
如果有人怎麼下怎麼輸,
把把都不會贏,勝率一成,
只要跟他反著做,
大概離財務自由不遠矣。

但是如果有人輸輸贏贏,
有時候連贏好幾把,
有時候又不太贏,
這個人操作其實就沒甚麼參考價值。

(大部分的散戶其實都是這樣輸輸贏贏居多。)

換到操作策略上,
道理也是一樣,
一個輸輸贏贏勝率六成的策略,
其實是沒甚麼用的,
要跟也不是,不跟也不是。
跟雜訊"擲銅板"沒有甚麼兩樣。


事實上,
市場上數據大多時候都沒有甚麼意義,
但是只有金融市場會在沒有意義的時候,
隨便回測推出一個模糊的六成結論,
拿出來大肆宣揚。

甚至,
坊間某些指標,
隱惡揚善,虛報績效,
只取對於自己有利的結論,
就是更不應該的事情。

相信就沒有理性,不要落入解釋數據的陷阱


投資重要的是對自己負責,
同樣的做相關的策略研究,
是要讓自己的操作有依據,

而非硬去找出一個理由,
與操作的藉口,讓自己"相信",

然而,相信就沒有理性

然而影響股價的變數相當的多,
如同之前所提到的,
盤面,籌碼,價量,新聞,
其實都具有一定程度的影響。

而有時候想要簡化問題,
只考量單一變數的影響力,

數據分析實務上來說,
重要的是相關性與"顯著性",

大部分的時間,
數據都沒有甚麼用,
比如外資買買賣賣個十億,
大概沒有甚麼鑑別價值,
但是大買大賣個兩三百億,
往往就會有一些動作上的"顯著性"
值得我們注意。

而這些"顯著性",
才是我們區隔股價合理與不合理的分際上,
判斷的工具。


如果讀者進行覺得自己的策略依據,
背後的操作邏輯沒有問題,
但是做出來卻只有六成左右的勝率,

那把條件設定的嚴格一點,
應該要能夠提升策略的品質與勝率,
否則你本身的策略依據可能就會有問題,

比如一個策略本來可能是,

"只要大股東買就跟著買"

那改成跟隨大股東大量買進時,
才進行跟單。
一定會比本來買少量也跟單,
買大量也跟單的勝率來的高,

如果沒有這樣的情況,
那就很有可能這支標的大股東,
並不是主要影響股價的作手。
或是有更深一層的道理讀者沒有想通。

(大股東的相關範例可見,兵敗如山倒宏達電的未來一文。)


往往都會提到顯著性,這個名詞,
或著是用"爆量"來做區別,背後的道理。


當然策略分析的眉眉角角還有很多,
有時侯不是數據沒有用,
而是解讀的技巧不足,
導致找不出數據背後的意義,

比如舊文提到過的相對化數據來提升勝率
利用價差比較來排除變因,
或是怎麼增加條件提升策略品質,
顯著性門檻的分析手法,等等。

這也是人人看籌碼,價量,盤面,
卻不是每個人都有辦法找出好的操作依據的原因,

將來卡方斯有機會會再深度討論這些技巧,
希望可以讓讀者早日脫離"相信式"操作,
轉而邁向理性交易的道路。

最後當然別忘了給個讚囉!




祝   操作順利      卡方斯



相信就沒有理性,而理性投資的第一步就建立在數據分析上,讀者是解釋數據還是真正的去分析數據呢? 


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