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為什麼台積電可以,英特爾不行?




隨著這幾年半導體業設計研發,
到建廠製造的成本越來越高 ,

在這樣的時空背景下,
半導體大頭不斷的透過競逐經濟規模與資本支出,
迫使小廠邊緣化,,大廠恆大形成一個寡占市場,
是邁向成熟產業不可逆的態勢。

然而在自身領域雄霸一方的各大巨頭們,
除了繼續在本身擅長的領域鬥爭 ,
也慢慢的將眼光放到其他的市場,
著眼於下一個企業成長的空間,
使得過往的市場邊際越來越模糊,
形成一個個新的賽局廝殺戰場,

而其中一個台股投資人不可不注意的,
當然少不了今天要討論的台積電與英特爾之爭。



資金控管才是市場生存之鑰



俗話說的好,一山不容二虎,
不過在資本主義的驅使下,
即便一山鬥到只剩下一虎 ,
剩下的虎王依然會把眼光放在下一座山的征服上,
特別是本來棲息地的食物正在逐漸萎縮的時候 ,
更是會激起這些虎大王的侵略性。

從顯示晶片一哥輝達跨足平板電腦處理器後,
到行動記憶體霸主三星揮軍進攻晶圓代工 ,
近來半導體業的跨領域競爭可以說是風起雲湧。













圖: 潰不成軍的AMD


過去幾年在CPU市廠拿下8成市占使AMD瀕臨破產的半導體王者英特爾,
自然也並沒有在這場大戲裡缺席,
在PC產業成長好景難在的情況下 ,
將其觸手伸入了晶圓代工的領域 。

除了一邊與大客戶蘋果眉來眼去爭取行動處理器的代工之外 ,
(I-MAC, Macbook 皆使用Intel處理器)

舊文所提到的正式與FPGA大廠Altera 合作無疑宣告了
這位成吉思汗擴張的版圖開始與台積電互相交鋒。


技術與客戶導向的戰爭,英特爾打算出甚麼菜?



無疑的,身為當今用電子產品裡技術門檻最高的CPU市場龍頭,
Intel跨足晶圓代工最大的優勢無非就是製程技術領先 ,

在其餘代工廠都必需要 2015年才能夠實行FinFET量產的狀況下,
於2012年就成功有商用產品上市的Intel,
無疑的領先眾家廠商一個世代以上!!










圖: 四大晶圓代工廠FinFET量產時程皆遠落後Intel

一場以技術力為導向的戰爭,
重點就不會是低價的Cost down市場,
而會以前端先進製程為主,

面對先進製程開光罩動輒上億的研發費用,
也只有幾家IC設計大廠才有玩得起的本錢,

換句話說,英特爾如果要玩,
主要的策略必然會像三星一般
爭取龍頭大廠的高階訂單為主。

想使用英特爾高階製程,
來使自家產品表現提升的廠商,
也絕對不會是少數,

但是,為什麼Altera可以輕易的琵琶別抱 ,
其他大廠卻不行?

這就要回歸張忠謀老是掛在嘴邊的,
"不與客戶競爭" 這句話。



客戶導向,是否能重演經典?


晶圓代工巨人台積電也並非等閒之輩 ,
過往台積電能夠遠超聯電成為晶圓代工霸主,
除了自身研發實力,產能控管堅強以外,

另外一個重要的原因就是,
以前我們在”為什麼台積電可以,聯電不行”中
曾經提過,

"代工最大的風險在於,設計圖交給出去後被”偷學”的風險"

在這層因素的考量下,
專注於服務大客戶成長的台積電,
與聯電當初扶植小型聯家軍的策略,
除了技術力的差距外 ,
很大一部份要歸咎於大廠不想”養老鼠,飼布袋”的心態上

而半導體業大者恆大的趨勢成型後,
不容易拿到大廠單的聯電,

相對來說獲利與研發資金也隨之下降,
台積電自然可以藉此擴大資本支出,
拉開技術差距,把聯電甩在後頭。

不過為了安這些大廠的心,
不與客戶競爭自然成為台積電老張自豪的經營哲學。


英特爾不是聯電,然而與客戶競爭層面更直接 

英特爾一年50億美元的研發金額,
並不是聯電等級的貨色,
也不會因為代工這塊做不好而在技術上落後。

但是,自有品牌的英特爾,
在多個領域與相關大廠直接競爭,
才是這些龍頭們不放心,怕被"偷學"的原因。

舉例而言,幾個有能力下高階製程的大廠,
高通 仍然會看到Intel不放棄進軍行動市場的野心,
輝達 AMD顯卡市場正面與Intel競爭,平板相關核心亦同。

於是,剩下可以爭取的選項就不多了,
不怕被抄襲給三星代工的蘋果,
以及高單價,市場又相互完全區隔的FPGA大廠,
就成為了英特爾第一波挖牆腳的對象。

後續如果成功,英特爾如果要玩真的,
能夠拿出甚麼牛肉解除這些大廠的疑慮,
才是關乎後續台積進退應對的大事。

換句話可以說,
短期內主力貢獻台積營收的國際大廠支柱並不會跑票,
持續獲利也並不是甚麼太大的問題。

但是投資講的往往是"未來的發展潛力",

從前,
台積電在晶圓市場可以說是技術力與客戶競爭關係的雙料冠軍,
不考慮價格的話,幾乎可以說是各方面最好選擇。

現在,
從市場上的選擇攤開來說,
TSMC的技術力第一的招牌相對不保,
在台積電已經囊括接近晶圓代工50%市占的現在,
能夠開發的新客源可以說是少之又少。

面對新的競爭者強勢來襲與老客戶的跑票,
除了利用每年8%左右的半導體市場成長來保持營收軌道,
如何在繼續再創高峰,
卡方斯想才是投資人需要思考的問題。

可見的將來,
台股第一權值的動向,
仍然會影響你我的投資,
關心此議題的同時也別忘了給個,給筆者一點鼓勵摟!




祝   操作順利      卡方斯



英特爾如果想要大舉進犯代工領域,客戶的信任是最大的問題,然而台積電面對列強的競爭,如何繼續保持高成長的軌道,投資人也應放大眼睛檢視。

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